India's steel market is out of step with global trends. Global demand is weak with China at a huge supply surplus to its domestic demand, pushing down global steel prices. India's domestic demand for steel is strong, given the continuing infrastructure push and is likely to accelerate as urbanisation improves, and the auto sector continues to grow alongside the infrastructure push.
Power generation decelerated 4.7 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to 155 billion units (BU) in August 2024. This was the first downtrend in many years, albeit on a high base - generation had increased 19 per cent Y-o-Y to 163 billion units (BU) in August 2023. The dip was partly due to excess rainfall, which pared cooling demand and also reduced need for irrigation.
On the exports front, Bajaj is under pressure in Bangladesh and Africa. On the domestic front, it could ride improvement in rural demand and new launches but it also has to cope with competitive intensity and a high base. The management projects 7-8 per cent volume growth in domestic 2W in financial year 2025 (FY25) with moderation in H2FY25 due to a high base Y-o-Y.
The mutual fund industry's QAAUM (Quarterly Average Assets Under Management) was up 37 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) (9 per cent Q-o-Q) to hit Rs 59 trillion (end Q1FY25). The equity segment grew 55 per cent Y-o-Y and equity formed 56 per cent of total AUM, up 49 per cent in Q1FY24. Sequentially, AUM grew by Rs 5 trillion.
Concerns have been raised over Marico's exposure to Bangladesh in the wake of turmoil in that country. However, the management reiterated expectations of growing domestic business at double digits and maintaining international growth. Marico scaled up its food business by 4 times between FY20-24 and aims to double it again in the next three financial years.
The news of Dixon Technologies (India)'s tie-up with HP in addition to its existing Lenovo and Acer partnerships has led to a 5 per cent stock uptick since the start of the week. Dixon can target roughly 60 per cent of India's addressable IT hardware market with these contracts. Dixon targets Rs 48,000 crore in revenue from IT hardware under the PLI scheme over the next six years.
In previews of Q2FY25 and beyond, industry analysts are expecting a turnaround for IT services. High teens earnings per share or EPS growth is expected for the next two-three financial years. The hopes are backed by deal wins of above $100 billion as at Q1FY25, up 16.6 per cent year-on-year ( Y-o-Y).
Road awards were muted in Q1FY25. But the pace will accelerate with a bidding pipeline of Rs 1.1 trillion (September 2024), mostly dominated by HAM (Hybrid Annuity Model) projects, which contribute 47 per cent and engineering procurement and construction or EPC projects, which have about 36 per cent share. Hence, infrastructure companies mostly reported revenue decline on a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) basis in Q1FY25.
The hospitality industry has around 212,000 rooms, with an industry size of about Rs 82,000 crore. The industry could grow at an annual rate of 10.5 per cent for the next three financial years, despite a quiet Q1FY25. The demand will be driven by domestic travellers, who will contribute roughly 50 per cent of the growth, while foreign tourists will account for 30 per cent.
Cement manufacturers have hiked prices after a challenging Q1FY25, and Q2FY25 (so far) when general elections and seasonal factors cut down on construction activity. The August prices are currently around 3-6 per cent above July 2024 but may not be sustainable in the face of weak demand. H2FY25 may see realisation growth which, if it happens, would drive average operating profit/tonne improvements in H2FY25 over a muted H1FY25.
Steel companies are witnessing margin pressures in Q2FY25 and this may persist until China sees growth recovery.
IndiGo has delivered impressive operating performance in the past six quarters as it navigated cost and capacity challenges. It has managed to mitigate the impact of faulty engine-related groundings. The airline has also managed costs related to grounding, expensive secondary leasing, increasing airport charges, and pilot compensation inflation and delivered stronger yields and spreads.
Trends in the global energy markets are crucial if India's growth outlook is to remain healthy. Prices for the Indian crude basket were averaging around $86.2 per barrel through Q1FY25 and then moderated to $84 in July and to $78-79 in August (so far). But global crude supply may outpace weak global demand in the short term.
Iron ore mining major NMDC's results for the April-June quarter (Q1) of FY25 were better than estimates. Weak volumes were balanced off by higher realisations, better average selling price (ASP) and lower royalties which boosted bottomline. The revenue was in line with estimates at Rs 5,400 crore, flat year-on-year (Y-o-Y) and down 17 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q).
Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) saw strong volume performance in the first quarter of the current financial year (Q1FY25), but margins disappointed due to weak spare part sales and negative electric vehicle (EV) margins. The company hopes for a strong festive season due to better rural sentiment. Revenue grew 16 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 10,140 crore, operating profit was up 21 per cent to Rs 1,460 crore, and adjusted net profit grew 19 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 1,120 crore.
Voltas saw strong growth in both UCP (Unitary Cooling product) and EMPS (electro mechanical projects) segments.
Info Edge (India), the country's leading consumer internet company known for its platforms in recruitment (naukri.com), real estate (99acres.com), matrimony (jeevansathi.com) and education (shiksha.com) space, delivered revenue growth in line with expectations in the April-June quarter (Q1) of FY25.
TVS Motor Company met expectations in terms of revenue and posted a strong margin performance in Q1FY25. The key drivers were material cost savings and a better mix. The domestic demand outlook looks good with a rural rebound but geopolitical uncertainties in key export markets may dent overall growth.
Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) reported a three per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) decline in consolidated net revenue to Rs 3,330 crore, lower than consensus. In constant currency terms (cc), revenue grew 11 per cent Y-o-Y. The India business clocked nine per cent Y-o-Y revenue growth with volume growth of 8 per cent Y-o-Y.
Britannia Industries reported revenue growth of 4 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in Q1FY25 and volume growth of 8 per cent implying price trends were adverse. Other operating income jumped 195 per cent, due to the incentive received for the Ranjangaon plant. The non-biscuit portfolio (rusk, cake, bread) remained key to growth and contributed 25 per cent of the total revenue.
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